In the world of cryptocurrencies, landing on a centralized exchange (CEX) is often considered a crucial milestone for every new token.
The listing on platforms like Binance, Bybit, or Coinbase promises immediate visibility, greater liquidity, and above all a possible increase in the token’s value.
However, a new study conducted by CryptoNinjas in collaboration with Storible, questions this enthusiasm.
The results show that the listing on a CEX often coincides with the peak of a token’s brilliance, only to be followed by a rapid and consistent decline.
FOMO and listing on CEX: why tokens “pump” at the beginning
The study examined all the tokens listed in 2024 on six of the most important exchange platforms: Binance, Bybit, OKX, Coinbase, Bithumb, and Upbit. In total, 389 tokens were analyzed.
The researchers have collected data related to the price at the time of listing, the current price (updated as of February 4, 2025), and the all-time high reached (ATH).
The conclusions are surprising: on average, listing on a CEX generates a 54% increase in the token price in the short term.
However, this initial jump is followed by a 52% plunge, with 89% of the tokens ending up losing value compared to the peak recorded during the listing phase.
When a project is listed on a prestigious CEX, there is almost always a wave of enthusiasm among investors, often driven by the so-called FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out).
This leads to a sudden surge in purchase requests, fueled by the belief that the token is about to take off.
According to the study, the 54% average growth in price just after the listing is evidence of high liquidity and speculative expectations. In many cases, however, this peak simply represents a temporary bubble.
Another significant data point concerns the all-time highs (ATH). 37% of the tokens analyzed reached their peak value on the very day of listing on a CEX, without ever managing to surpass it again.
This demonstrates that the hype generated by the novelty of the listing often represents the peak of the market performance of the token.
The next phase is almost always painful. After the initial euphoria, a wave of sales follows, leading to an average drop of 52% compared to the value reached during the pump phase.
In other words, for the majority of tokens, the arrival on a CEX turns into a descending parabola, rather than a lasting launch pad.
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Binance: the queen of effects, but double-edged
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Among all the platforms analyzed, Binance confirms itself as the one with the greatest impact, both positive and negative. The tokens listed on the largest exchange in the world record a surge of 87% on the day of listing, the highest value among all platforms.
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However, glory is fleeting: a full 98% of these tokens end up being “dumps”, experiencing an average drop of 70% from the initial peak.
Furthermore, 46% of the tokens listed on Binance reach their ATH on the same day of listing, indicating that for many of them, the listing represents the moment of maximum capitalization, not the beginning of a lasting positive trend.
In second place for market impact is Bybit, another rapidly rising platform. The data shows that the tokens listed on Bybit record an average increase of 61% at the time of listing.
Curiously, Bybit holds the record for the highest percentage of tokens reaching ATH at the time of listing: a full 60%.
Here too, however, it follows the decline: 92% of the tokens undergo a dumping phase, with an average drop of 63% compared to the initial peak. A scenario that confirms how risky it can be to invest by following only the enthusiasm of the moment.
Unlike its competitors, Coinbase exhibits a more sober and controlled behavior. The tokens listed on this US platform experience only a 41% increase during the listing phase, the lowest percentage among all the CEX considered.
However, even the subsequent crash is more moderate, with an average decline of 28%.
Only 23% of tokens on Coinbase reach the ATH at the time of listing, the lowest percentage of the entire sample analyzed. This could indicate that the market connected to Coinbase is less aggressive and therefore also less prone to speculative bubbles.
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A predictable but dangerous cycle
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The research by CryptoNinjas and Storible demonstrates with clear numbers how the dynamic of pump & dump is the norm rather than the exception in the context of CEX. The cycle is easily recognizable:
- – Initial pump: +54% on average
- – ATH on the day of the listing for 37% of the tokens
- – Dump subsequent in 89% of cases
- – Average decline post-listing of 52%
For the projects, the listing remains a fundamental step to access the large audience of the global market.
But for investors, especially those less experienced, giving in to the temptation of purchasing on the launch day can mean exposing themselves to significant losses in a very short time.
What should be a great opportunity for emerging criptovalute often turns out to be a speculative trap, a gold rush that ends with a rude awakening.
Investors should therefore approach the phenomenon of listings with greater awareness, avoiding being overwhelmed by FOMO and carefully evaluating the real foundations of the project.
In light of what has emerged, it is clear: the listing on a CEX is a double-edged sword. It is up to the investor to decide which side to rub it on.
